Security
in East Asia. Is China a new hegemon?
Introduction
East Asia is one of the most
rapidly developing regions of the world. One fifth of the world population
lives here. Growing economies of China, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines make
important impact into the world trade flows. Region is not homogeneous. China
is the biggest country, economic and military potential of which is becoming
more and more significant. Another important player is Japan. For several post
II World War decades it was the most developed country in the region, but due
to the post war set up it did not pursue its military policy. As the result of
the World War II the US presence in the regional security set up was dominant. The
US has a military alliance with Japan, bilateral security agreements with major
countries of the region, as well as significant military deployments in Asia
and Pacific. The security in the region in the second part of the 20th century
to the large extent was defined by the US interests, but recently with the rise
of China, the balance of powers seems to start shifting.
In all official statements
Chinese authorities constantly stress that China rise is peaceful and it is not
a threat to the security in the region. However, Chinese policies often
challenge this view. In particular China reserves only the right for unilateral
decisions in the areas, which it considers domestic, or falling under its sovereignty.
The problem is that the geographical limits of Chinese sovereignty are often contested
and the territories, which Beijing considers as domestic are claimed by other
states. This leads to growing tensions in the region. So far China has been
progressing in its claims and neighbors neither individually, nor collectively
were not able to counteract. Such developments together with the declining
economic power of the US and growing power of China may lead observers to the
conclusion that Beijing is going to become new hegemon in the region, or the
country, which has preponderant influence or control over the region, creating satellite
relations with dependent states, or establishing its zone of influence.
In this essay I am going to argue
that although China is the most powerful player in the region, at least in the
middle-term period it is not going to acquire hegemonic power in the region. China
is not going to become the hegemon in the short term, as the military presence
of the US is still significant, as well as Japan is preforming efficient
diplomacy to unite smaller states to balance China in ongoing territorial
conflicts. Moreover, potentially threatening security problems like North
Korea, Taiwan issue, or maritime borders are quite complex and have potential
implications for the global security, which ensures close attention to the
region of the US and international institutions.
Security
architecture in East Asia after 2nd World War
During the second part of the
20th century the security landscape in East Asia was determined by the balance
of powers created after the Second World War and subsequent Cold War. The
hegemonic power setting up the scene was the US, which continues to play the
key role in the region. The US’ impact was key to the balance of powers as it
played an active role in the two major conflicts - Korean war and Vietnam, as
well as a key role in securing Taiwan’s independence from China. There are 3
key actors defining the security landscape in the region: US, China and Japan.
The role of the USSR and then Russia also has an impact, especially on the
military conflicts in the region.
In the middle of the 20th century
as the part of China containment strategy US created so called security system
focused on the bilateral agreements with the countries of the East Asian
region. In the early 1950s, the US concluded security or defense treaties with
Australia (1951), New Zealand (1951, the Philippines (1951), Japan (1951), and
Korea (1953). In the spring of 1954, the US initiated talks to create a
regional alliance, the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO).
The structure has been working
for the half of the century quite successfully.
However, towards the end of the century the countries of the region
started development of the multilateral security structures. First and foremost
such structures are represented by ASEAN and APF, but significant role is also
played by Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as well as Track II dialog mechanism
(M.Lanteigne, 2005).
Although the operations of the
multilateral security structures have not been really remarkable, development
of such platform shows the growing trend of emancipation from the structures
created by the US in the region. At the same time, the role of China in
providing security is growing. As political opposition between communist and
capitalist models passed away as well as with the growing economic
interdependence of the region, China becomes more and more confident and strong
in voicing its requirements in security sphere.
China’s regional
security strategy
During the last half of the
century China has been evolving from a dominant preoccupation with the domestic
issues to the growing confidence and influence in the region and globally. Just
due to the size of the territory, population and growing economic strength
China naturally belongs to the most influential states of the world. In the
region these legacies are doubled by historical domination of China and
perception of China as the center of civilization. The latter factor is getting
more and more emphasis in the public discourse due to the nationalistic moods
and popular concepts developed by intellectuals. Nevertheless, Chinese careful
position of the responsible leader dominates so far. This vision implies that
China is not seeking the hegemony, as it was stated in Deng Xiaoping’s doctrine
buyao dangtou (do not seek leadership). Consequently the main instrument of the
building relations in the region is “great power diplomacy” with the objective
of building if not friendly but at least stable and peaceful relations in the region
(Z.Yunling, T.Shiping, 2005: 49).
As the region was for decades
dominated by one hegemon - the US, the dominating discourse of Chinese officials
now is the advocacy of multilateralism - partnerships development and
community-building is considered to be the key for providing security. Analyzing
Chinese White paper on arms control and disarmament, G. Bates mentions:
“Indirectly referring to the US, the document expressed concern with continued
hegemonism, power politics and Cold War thinking as the source of problems for
the world piece and denounced enlargement of military blocks [i.e.NATO] and the
strengthening of the military alliances” (G. Bates, 2005: 249). China’s vision
of the multilateralism in the region is embodied in the growing cooperation in
terms of APEC, ASEAN, ARF, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Track II
dialog.
The Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) was founded in 1967 and did not accept socialist regimes
as members. However, during 1990s this strategy was reviewed, which allowed
partnership with China, as well as with Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. In 1994
ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) was established as the platform for the security
cooperation. China is currently a member of both structures and its voice is
becoming stronger and stronger. China definitely does not want to be bound by
the decisions taken by the regional structures, thus its principal position is
for preservation of ARF operation by consensus as well as for the absence of
the enforcement mechanisms. Currently all decisions of the Forum are
consultative. Some scholars relate such a position of China to the study of the
lessons of OSCE creation. Mark Lanteigne argues: “China’s objections stemmed
from its perceptions that the OSCE’s inclusion of human rights issues into its
security dialogues contributed to the erosion of the Soviet Union” (M. Lanteigne,
2005: 93). Moreover, China has been actively creating separate mechanisms
within ASEAN (for instance ministerial level initiative Cooperative Operations
in Response to Dangerous Drugs).
Another instrument of regional
security dialog supported by China is so called “Track II”. This is a dialog
platform for academics, diplomats and second rank officials. It allows informal
communication and exchange of ideas. It should be noted that even on this level
China is reluctant to allow Taipei to have a separate voice. For instance, one
of the most influential groups of the Track II is the Council for Security
Cooperation in Asia-Pacific. China insisted on semi-governmental structure of
the group and insisted that Taiwanese representatives can participate only as
individuals and cannot be represented in the Steering Committee (M. Lanteigne,
2005).
Thus, if we look closer on the
nature of the relationships China is building, it looks like China is accepting
the responsibilities quite selectively and is not prepared to negotiate
positions, which it’s leadership perceives as core national interests, no
matter how harmful such position is for the “friendly atmosphere” in the
region. Although Chinese influence on the multilateral institutions is growing,
it is worth mentioning that such institutions play secondary role in the
regional security architecture and many countries give priority to bilateral
relations with the US, as well as we will see below, Japan is actively
developing alternative to multilateral structures, which have potential to
constrain Chinese aggressive policies.
Conflicts
in East Asia
1) Taiwan
On the eve of the dissolution of
the colonial system China had 3 breakaway territories - Hong Kong (was under
British administration), Macao (Portuguese colony) and Taiwan. As a result of
successful negotiations, China managed to reintegrate Hong Kong (in 1997) and
Macao (in 1999). The situation with Taiwan is much more complicated. As it was
the territory to which nationalistic government of Chiang Kai-Shek retreated,
Chinese government felt threatened due to Chiang Kai-Shek intentions to fight
back, as well as Beijing considers itself in the full right to fight for the
reintegration of the territory into the one China.
China attempted using force in
Taiwan Strait in 1954 and 1958, which provoked large crisis in terms of the
Cold war. Military activities of China were aimed at destroying military bases
on the islands close to the mainland. During 2 months in 1954 PLA shelled Fujan
and Jinmen islands. But such actions had counterproductive result, as soon
after the shelling US and Taiwan began formal negotiations over a mutual defense
treaty. The Document was signed on December 2, 1954. However, the treaty did
not specify whether the coastal islands would be covered by the US protection.
Only Taiwan and Penghu islands were mentioned in the document. Another regional
security developments were only increasing concerns of Beijing. T. Fravel
mentions that China’s concern was only raised by the fact that: “US-ROC Mutual Defense
Treaty would incorporate Taiwan into this network, further increasing the KMT’s
international support while reducing the odds of Taiwan unification with China.
The division of Vietnam at the 1954 Geneva conference affirmed a Cold War trend
of partitioning nations such as Korea and Germany” (M.T. Fravel, 2008: 236).
US also made a sharp response to
the shelling of Jinmen and Mazu islands by PLA in August 1958. On September 4,
Secretary of State John Foster Dulles stated that US would use force to prevent
PRC from capturing Janmen. Before this escalation the information leaked that
the US were planning to place nuclear-tipped Matador missiles on the island. US
also constructed large airbase capable of supporting B-52 bombers that
potentially could be used in strikes against Chinese mainland. In November 1957
joint Taiwan-US military exercises were held in the Strait. In March 1958 US
consolidated 17 military aid agencies that had been established to provide
assistance to Taiwan into the Taiwan-US defense command.
However, the situation in the
East Asian region often required cooperation between China and US and did not
allow Washington to push too hard for Taiwanese independence. In particular,
after 1958 the US needed to stabilize relations with China as it increased its
involvement in Vietnam. This led to more careful position of the US towards
Taipei. When Chiang Kai-Shek mobilized to attach the mainland in the spring of
1962, for example, United States indicated clearly to China that if Chiang did
launch an attack, he would do so without American support. By 1971 US agreed to
reduce its military support for Taiwan.
China was also gradually changing
its approach towards Taiwan. Under Mao, China had pursued a policy of
liberation achieving unification by force if necessary, Once the US intervened
in the conflict in the summer of 1950, China’s leaders viewed liberation as the
long term process that required strengthening China’s military power and
eliminating US backing of the KMT. As Mao described delaying strategy to
Kissinger in 1973, “I say that we can do without Taiwan for the time being, and
let it come after one hundred years… why is there a need to be in such a great
haste?” Further decrease of the conflict was reached when US support was
greatly reduced after normalization, China shifted its strategy to the
“peaceful unification” (M.T. Fravel, 2008: 250).
Since that time hard response of
China was provoked only once. When before the elections in 1999 Taiwanese
president Lee-Teng hui publicly claimed that de facto Taiwan is independent
state and it does not need formal recognition to prove this fact, Beijing
responded with large scale military excursuses in the Taiwan Strait. But the
conflict was soon downgraded as this time US did not support move of Taipei,
needing China consent on other policy issues (M.T. Fravel, 2008).
Beijing also prevents Taiwan from
participation in regional initiatives. In particular China blocked Taipei
formal participation in ARF and the Council for Security Cooperation in
Asia-Pacific.
Until recently political
situation in Taiwan was favorable for China. The party, which had parliament
majority (KMT) for recent 8 years and the president Ma were conducting
pro-Chinese policies not stressing the issue of formal independence and
sticking to so called status quo framework of One-China. Recent elections,
which led to resigning of the KMT cabinet, may shift situation. Thanks to the
broad support of youth, Democratic Progressive Party has won the elections. DPP
conducts more pro-independence politics and advocates for distancing from
China. Although Ma keeps the office by 2016 elections, his politics may become
also more moderate.
Thus, although growing economic
ties between China and Taiwan were giving grounds for the conclusion that
Taipei is gradually moving from the primary reliance on the US and is leaning
towards Beijing, the situation is more complicated. The identity of the
independent people, which grew in Taiwan during the last half of the century,
has influence on the political processes and likely it will ensure that Taipei
will be stay cautious towards partnership with China relying on US as the key
security partner.
2) Maritime disputes
Maritime disputes are posing the
most serious threat to the regional security. As the territorial waters of
several coastal states overlap and due to historical precedents when
territorial affiliation of islands was changing as the result of wars, contesting
versions on delimitation of sovereign territories appear. South China Sea is
important for economics (important trade routs, reach seabed resources and
fishing resources) and for security reasons. There are bilateral and
multilateral disputes. The most prominent case among bilateral disputes is
sovereignty over Diaoyu/Senkaku islands. Among the multilateral disputes Paracel
(Xisha) and Spratly (Nansha) deserve attention.
Diaoyu/Senkaku
islands were acquired by Japan as the result of China defeat in Japan-China war
in 1985. In accordance with World War II Piece Treaty of Potsdam, Japan had to
return all the territories to the states that had sovereignty over them before
the war. China claims that the treaty is applicable to Diaoyu/Senkaku. Tokyo
however says that the islands were acquired by Japan long before the World War
II and at that time they were not inhabited and not claimed by other states and
the development of living conditions on the islands was made by Japan.
To
strengthen its position Tokyo refrains even from public statement that there is
a dispute over the sovereignty over the Diaoyu islands. China maintains hard
line in diplomacy insisting on the fact that islands should be returned, but
Beijing does not limit its actions by statements only. China regularly sends
its maritime law enforcement ships to Diaoyu/Senkaku (50 times during
2013-2014), which Japan considers to be violation of its territorial waters.
Moreover, in November 2013, China announced establishment of Air Defense
Identification Zone in the East China Sea, which requires all the aircraft
entering ADIZ to identify themselves and coordinate their movement with Beijing
authorities, otherwise China reserves the right to attack. So far ADIZ has
never been enforced. Neither Japan, nor US adjusted their military activities
in the region and do not notify Beijing on the movement of their aircraft. It
should be noted that Japan has its ADIZ since 1969 and efficiently tackles
activities of Chinese aircraft. So move of Beijing can be interpreted not as an
act of aggression, but as the desire to reach parity. At the same time hreation
of Chinese ADIZ is jet another sign of growing strength of Beijing, which
ultimately alters positions of US and Japan (J.Holslag, 2014).
Reacting
on these developments in 2013 Abe government launched review of Japanese
security strategy shifting priorities to the threat of to “an invasion by China
of South Japan”, especially the Okinawa islands (Crisis Group Asia Report, 2014)
Another issues fueling
multilateral tensions are related to the status of Paracel (Xisha) and Spratly
(Nansha) islands. As in case of Diaoyu/Senkaku China never entered into talks
regarding sovereignty of these territories. In 2 cases China occupied the
territory by force (in 1974 Crescent group in the Western Paracels which was
controlled by South Vietnam and in 1988 six features of the Spratlys, regarding
which territorial claims were posed by claimed by Vietnam and Phillipines). Since
1949 China compromised only in one offshore territorial dispute - White Dragon
Tail. The details of the deal are almost unknown but the leading explanation is
that Mao approved the transfer to support North Vietnam in its fight with US (T.Fravel,
2008).
During the long period
negotiating the affiliation of offshore islands China
had
never raised the issue sovereignty, instead voicing the question of joint
crisis management, or joint development of the territories with other coastal
states. According to ICG the change in Chinese strategy happened in 2012, when
after several months of balancing with Philippines on Scarborough Shoal,
Beijing sent regular law enforcement patrols to the area (Crisis Group Asia
Report, 2014)
Now
it looks like small coastal states started cooperation to constrain China’s
assertiveness in maritime disputes. In January 2013 Vietnam
appealed to the UN Tribunal seeking a ruling on the validity of China’s
nine-dash lines, status of the low tide elevations on the Philippine Continental
shelf and Philippines Economic Exclusive Zones around Panatag Island
(Scarborough Shoal). On December 11, 2014 Vietnam supported appeal of Philippines and
stated that the Tribunal has the competence to interpret the provisions in the
U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea in
regards to the construction of
artificial islands in the exclusive economic zones and Continental Shelves of
coastal states. US ultimately supports both submissions. As of now China claims
it is not going to participate in the proceedings. Even if be the decision of
the Tribunal will favorable to Philippines and Vietnam, the issues of
enforcement may arise, but this development definitely signals change in the
strategy of regional powers towards China. It is the first joint attempts to
counteract to Beijing’s aggressive policies (Ellen T. Tordesillas, 2014).
On its
end Japan is also working on aligning partners to counterbalance China. In 2007
Japan-Australia joint Declaration on Security and Defense was signed. Japan-US
military cooperation was also strengthened in October 2013 by transferring new
types of high-tech weapons to Japan. Tokyo also concluded agreements on
cooperation in sphere of security with Manila, Singapore, Indonesia,
Phillipines and Vietnam (J.Holslag,
2014).
Thus
dynamics of the maritime disputes is encourage states of the region to unite
and act together to constrain Chinese unilateral aggressive policies. Current
appeal to the UN Tribunal is strongly supported by the US, as well as
development of the cases closely monitored by international institutions. This dynamics
gives grounds for the conclusion that also China is the most powerful country
in the region in case of joint interests supported by global leaders other
Asian countries will be able to balance Chinese influence.
3) North
Korea
Although the war in North Korea
is long gone it still has an impact on the security dynamics in East Asia. The
nuclear weapons in the hands of backward country create the threat for the
whole region. The attempts to handle the issue also have an impact on the
relations between one of the key economic tigers of the region South Korea and
major forces like US and China.
In 1950s partnership with North
Korea and its importance for China was grounded in ideology, international
security alliances structure and national interests. At the beginning of the
XXI century Beijing’s position changed as the importance of the first two
factors decreased. Current situation on the peninsula with the existence of two
separate countries with different economic and political systems would satisfy
China. Its official position says that stability is more important than the
unification of Korea (J.H. Chung, 2005). But current set up leads to
significant military presence of the US on the peninsula and possibility of
deployment of missile defenses.
Hard push on North Korea proved
to be inefficient. Neither US ultimatums, nor Chinese diplomatic efforts did
not persuade Pyongyang to stop its nuclear program. J.Komberg argues that
current balance of military powers leaves no choice for Pyongyang but to keep
the arsenal: “North Korea maintains an active military force of nearly 1
million (5 percent of its population), and South Korea’s active force numbers
70000. In addition nearly 40 000 US military personnel are still stationed in
South Korea. North Korea’s superior members are balanced by South Korea’s more
modern equipment and technology. No longer supported by Russia and increasingly
unsure of Chinese support, North Korea is on its own in terms of military
might. South Korea has double the population and far more vibrant economy. This
leaves North Korea’s leadership with only the nuclear option to ensure its grip
on power” (J.F.Kornberg, 2005).
China took the leadership
position in the attempt of the mediation of the conflict with Northern Korea,
initiating six party talks. Observers mentioned that it was “three-day
interruption of oil supplies to North Korea” which contributed to Kim Jong-Il
willingness to enter the dialog. Although the negotiations proved to be
unproductive both North Korea and US were not ready for compromise, they lifted
the status of China as the mediator in the region. Moreover six-party talk were
not fruitful. As the result of contacts South Korea managed to get several
contracts for Hyundai from Northern Korea. In 2002 South Korea become second
largest trade partner of North Korea. Such policy of soft engagement is
preferable both for South Korea and China (J. H. Chung, 2005).
South Korea sees the threat in
the North Korea, but US straightforward strategies make ROK cautious. Strong
push from US in the past only led to the deepening of crisis. Escalation of
crisis, or imposition of sanctions over North Korea are against Seoul interests
as in such case the majority of businesses would withdraw their investments
from South Korea.
Although South Korean relations
with China have improved recently, people are still cautious towards Beijing. According
to the national survey (2005) only 6.1 % of population says they trust China. The
same level of trust has North Korea, whereas trust to US has 19.8% of KOS
population. In the case of war almost half of South Korean population (40.9%)
expects China to stay neutral and only 0.9% believe that China can become KOS
ally and protect it. However, the absolute majority of South Koreans believe
that China will have the strongest influence on the economic development of
their country in the following decade (73.5%), whereas only 8.7% see America as
the key economic partner (Jeffrey W. Legro, 2008).
China is strengthening ties with
South Korea not only through economic means. Diplomatic tools are also quite
efficiently used by Beijing. China was strong advocate of special status for
itself, Japan and South Korea within ASEAN. The format was called ASEAN+3. This
cooperation slowly disenchants US.
President of South Korea recently came up with the concept of
“cooperative independence” and the strategy of regional cooperation, which
sometimes evaluated as the drift from US. The concept of “Northeast Asian
Balancer” presented by Roh in 2005 mentions US simply as one of many neighbors
(Jeffrey W. Legro, 2008). Relations between China and ROK are strengthened on
the human level. The movement of people between countries is encouraged and in
2002 South Korean students in China amounted 42% (D. Shaumbaugh, 2005). Another
tool of Chinese diplomacy towards South Korea is based on interpretation of the
history. Both Seoul and Beijing have painful memories of Japanese occupation.
During the recent visit to Seoul Xi condemned Japanese aggression. Another
symbolic event was the opening of a memorial hall to Korean Ahn Jung-geun, who
in 1909 assassinated Hirobumi Ito, first resident governor of then Japanese-run
Korea (Crisis Group Asia Report, 2014).
However
South Korea still relies primary on the US in its security and defense strategy.
The US stays the main supplier of arms for South Korea (SIPRI, 2013)
Thus, Beijing plays key role in
potentially explosive conflict around North Korea. China is using the situation
to strengthen ties with South Korea. Diplomatic relations of two powerful Asian
states indeed became warmer, however, South Korean pubic still does not trast
Beijing and does not see it as the security partner, as well as South Korean
government continues to see the US as the key guarantor of its security.
Economics
as the means of security provision
East Asia is probably the most dynamically
developing region in terms of economy and trade in the world. In 2012
intra-Asia trade amounted 25% of Asia’s total 6 $ trillion annual exports.
Trade with China constitutes 37% of ASEAN states total trade. Economic dynamics
changed in the region rapidly during the last 20 years.
After the II World War economics
of East Asia was usually explained by the flying goose model, where the role of
goose was played by Japan. Japan’s rapid economic development and technological
superiority made it a strong leader in the region and it was seen as the driver
of the development which was supposed to be leading all other countries in the
region. However, the model soon changed. Also technologically still more
advanced then its neighbors Japan is now heavily dependent on supplies from
China. Moreover, the trade balance is no longer in Japan’s favor. Rapidly
growing regional economic system (during 1991-2001 interregional trade
increased on 304%) is becoming more and more Sino centric. In 1990s US, Japan,
Hong Kong, Taiwan and Korean producers shifted their plants to China in the
search of the cheep labor as the result of which China dramatically increased
production and exports of goods. China creates regional demand and absorbs
intermediate products produced in the region (H.Ohashi, 2005).
This tremendous shift is
efficiently used by China in pushing forward its political and security
objectives. It is clearly seen in the relations with Japan, South Korea and
Taiwan. Taiwan export dependence on the mainland is growing. In 2003 China
became the largest trade partner for Taipei putting US on the second place.
South Korea is the fifth largest foreign investor in China (J. H. Chung, 2005).
China and South Korea formally normalized
relations in 1992. Seoul was seeking for the cheap labor and profitable
overseas makers, which coincided with the shift on the policies of China and
the desire to open up. Especially after Tiananmen China needed to deepen
regional cooperation to mediate the effect of sanctions imposed by western
leaders (H.Ohashi, 2005).
However,
recently Japan started active diversification of import and export to decrease
its dependency on China. Tokyo is gradually increases export to other then
China ASEAN countries. Remembering the lesson of trade war Tokyo already
reduced import of raw materials from China to 50%, buying from India, Brasil
and countries of ASEAN (J.Holslag,
2014).
Thus, although China efficiently
uses economic ties to create the sphere of influence in the region, this
strategy can be balanced by the efforts of Japan.
Conclusion
Developments described above
demonstrate the general trend of growing Chinese influence on the security
landscape in the region. Thanks to the growing economic interdependence Beijing
managed to involve countries which were formerly associated with the US into
cooperation. Economic interests are forming the base for political and security
dialog between China and South Korea and Taiwan, as well as economics put
constraints on the ability of Japan to pursue independent agenda in the region.
Too strict and nonnegotiable stance taken by the US in the number of conflicts
in the region only pushed its former allies for closer relations with Beijing.
China also managed to create the
situation in the multilateral institutions, when Beijing has power to block
particular decisions, or just make some questions nonnegotiable. China succeeds
in keeping multilateral institutions from full formalization by blocking the
ideas of giving organizations like ASEAN authority for issuing binging for
members decisions.
Although China refrains from use
of military force, it is clear that nobody from regional players can negotiate
on any of issues lying within the realm of Chinese core interests such as
territorial affiliation of islands in the South China Sea, or status of Taiwan.
However, China’s
aggressive policies, in particular towards disputed territories, force other
countries in the region unite to counteract. Currently Japan and the US are
playing leading role in supporting coalitions of smaller countries united by
dissatisfaction with Chinese policies. Such dynamics gives grounds for the
conclusion that despite growing economic potential and military capabilities,
China is not going to become hegemonic power in East Asia in near future.
Reference list
Gill
Bates, “China's evolving regional security strategy”, in Power
shift: China and Asia's new dynamics, ed. David Shambaugh (Berkeley: University
of California Press, 2005), 247-265
Jae
Ho Chung, “China's ascendancy and the Korean peninsula: from interest
reevaluation to strategic realignment?” in Power shift: China and Asia's new
dynamics, ed. David Shambaugh (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2005),
151-169
Taylor
M Fravel, Strong borders, secure nation: Cooperation and conflict in China’s
territorial disputes. Princeton and Oxford, Princeton University Press, 2008
Jonathan
Holslag “The Smart Revisionist”, Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, 56:5,
95-116, DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2014.962802
International
Crisis Group, “Old Scores and New Grudges: Evolving Sino-Japanese Tensions”
Asia Report N°258 | 24 July 2014, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/north-east-asia/258-old-scores-and-grudges-evolving-sino-japanese-tensions.pdf
Judith
F. Kornberg, Faust John R. China in World Politics. Policies, Processes,
Prospects. Vancouver Toronto: UBC Press, 2005
Marc
Lanteigne, China and international institutions: alternate paths to global
power. New York, NY : Routledge, 2005
Jeffrey
W. Legro Between China, America, and North Korea : South Korea's hedging
China's ascent : power, security, and the future of international
politics / edited by Robert S. Ross and Zhu Feng Ithaca : Cornell University
Press, 2008
Hideo Ohashi,
“China's regional trade and investment profile”, in Power shift: China and
Asia's new dynamics, ed. David Shambaugh (Berkeley: University of California
Press, 2005), 71-95
Jack
C. Plano, Roy Olton, The international relations dictionary. Santa Barbara,
Calif.: ABC-Clio, 1988.
David
Shambaugh, “Return to the middle kingdom? China and Asia in the early
twenty-first century”, in Power shift: China and Asia's new dynamics, ed. David
Shambaugh (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2005), 23-47.
Sipri
Fact Sheet, Trands in international arms transfers, 2013, http://books.sipri.org/files/FS/SIPRIFS1403.pdf
Ellen
T. Tordesillas, Vietnam supports PH position on South China Sea dispute, http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/focus/12/13/14/vietnam-supports-ph-position-south-china-sea-dispute
Zhang
Yunling, Tang Shiping, “China’s Regional Strategy”, in Power shift: China and
Asia's new dynamics, ed. David Shambaugh (Berkeley: University of California
Press, 2005), 48-70
Natalia Novakova
Немає коментарів:
Дописати коментар