Questioning
the significance of security through NATO membership has become a tactic of
Russia appeasers. The purported logic for this argumentation is twofold: nothing has disturbed Vladimir Putin more
than NATO expansion; and nothing would exacerbate the current Ukraine-Russia
crisis more than NATO membership for Ukraine.
In any event, the appeasers suggest,
NATO membership is hardly an absolute security guaranty since each NATO
member country acts at its own discretion.
Thus Ukraine should relinquish its NATO membership aspirations. So the
argument goes.
Article 5
of the North Atlantic Treaty provides that an armed attack against one shall be
considered an attack against all and each will assist the one attacked.
Detractors of this Article point out that the all for one and one for all
language is followed by “such action as it deems necessary,” thereby rendering
any assistance discretionary with each member.
There are
currently 28 NATO members. To assume the extreme that all will '”deem
necessary” to do nothing or next to
nothing is to suggest that the members will decide that NATO is no longer
needed. More importantly, that logic assumes that all member countries will
feel so certain of their own security that by doing nothing or very little they
are prepared for a reciprocal action in the event their own security is in
peril. The question then is why did those countries join NATO if not because
they sought collective security.
The reality
is very different. In fact with Russia attacking Ukraine, Poland as Ukraine's
close neighbor and a NATO member invoked Article 4 seeking NATO consultation.
NATO responded by convening a summit and deploying special units to Poland and
the Baltic countries. Several NATO members currently are providing military
equipment to Ukraine itself.
The only
example of an attack on a NATO country since NATO's formation was the terrorist
attack on the United States on September 11, 2001. The U.S. invoked Article 5.
Following a determination that the aggressor was based in Afghanistan NATO led
an International Security Assistance Force against the aggressor there.
According to NATO sources all 28 NATO countries participated. Only Luxembourg
did not provide troops. Even such smaller NATO members as Slovenia, Estonia,
Iceland and Albania did.
Granted
this was an attack on the United States and perhaps no NATO member wanted to
disappoint the ultimate guarantor of its security. Nevertheless, on the other
hand, the theater of operations was not the North Atlantic area which is the
geographic location named in the NATO treaty. Article 5 provides “the use of
armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.”
Coming to the aid of the U.S. brought other NATO members under fire on their
own territory.
NATO
expansion and Russian aggression are not a cause and effect phenomenon as
suggested by the Russia appeasers. Moldova was not a serious candidate for NATO
membership in 1992 when the 14th Army decided to secure the borders
of the Russia inspired breakaway state of Transdniester. Georgia's NATO
membership aspirations had suffered a severe blow at the Bucharest NATO summit
in April 2008 before Russia decided to invade Georgian territory (Abkhazia and
South Ossetia) four months later. Ukraine's very tangible NATO aspirations were
also dashed in Bucharest and Ukraine certainly had not revived its NATO
aspirations or solicitation when Russia invaded Crimea in February of 2014.
To the
contrary, Russian history is replete with Russian aggression, mostly, not when its victim was particularly secure
in its defense, but rather when Russia saw its victim at its weakest. The
Russian Federation today spans 10 time zones. 150 nations live within that Federation,
not because Russia is a country of immigrants but because Russia even today is
an ill acquired empire. Ukraine's Russia
problem dates back to 1654 when Ukraine was besieged by Poland and the Tatars.
and needed an alliance with Russia. Russia exploited Ukraine's security issues
at that time by simply overrunning Ukraine's territory. Frankly Ukraine has
never recovered from that alliance.
Removing
the Ukrainian, Georgian and Moldova possibility of NATO membership has a
serious deleterious effect on the security of those countries. They are
significantly weakened because Russia is emboldened. Why? Because that's what bullies do.
Furthermore, the security of NATO members neighboring those countries is
affected. Ultimately global security is at risk. If the events of the 20th
century regarding Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union have taught us anything,
it's that appeasement only serves to embolden the aggressor.
December
22, 2014
Askold S. Lozynskyj
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